Estero FL Housing Market: What’s Happening in Early 2026?
JESSE MCGREEVY February 18, 2026
JESSE MCGREEVY February 18, 2026
If you have been keeping an eye on Southwest Florida real estate lately, you have probably noticed a shift in the wind. We are well into the 2026 winter season here in Estero, and the frantic bidding wars of the post-pandemic years feel like a distant memory.
For anyone thinking about moving to Estero FL or listing a home here, the landscape has changed. We are looking at a market that is taking a deep breath and finding its balance. Whether you are a snowbird looking to land permanently or a local wanting to upsize, understanding these new numbers is the key to making a smart move this year.
Let’s get right to the point: the market has cooled, but it hasn’t frozen. As of February 2026, Estero is transitioning into what we call a "balanced" to "buyer-leaning" market. This is a significant change from the seller-dominated environment we saw just a few years ago.
The most interesting trend right now is the tug-of-war between expectation and reality. We are seeing median list prices hovering around $550,000, but when you look at the actual closed sales, the median sale price is sitting closer to the $470,000 to $485,000 range. That gap tells us a lot. Sellers are still aiming high, remembering the boom times, but buyers are disciplined and negotiating hard.
Of course, seasonality is in full swing. The snowbirds are here, the restaurants at Coconut Point are full, and open houses are seeing foot traffic. However, unlike previous years where traffic equaled instant offers, today’s buyers are taking their time. The inventory surge—which we will touch on in a minute—means they finally have options, and they aren’t afraid to use them.
To understand where we are going, we have to look at the numbers driving the decisions. It isn't just about prices; it's about the pace of the market and how much leverage you actually have.
The biggest headline in 2026 is choice. For a long time, we were fighting over scraps, but now inventory levels have risen significantly. We are currently seeing about 6 to 6.5 months of supply. In real estate terms, six months is generally considered "equilibrium." This means there are enough homes for sale to satisfy demand without creating a shortage or a glut. If you are a buyer, this is great news—you can actually sleep on a decision without losing the house.
Because there is more to choose from, homes are lingering a bit longer. The average time it takes to go from listing to contract is now stretching into the 65–77 day range. Compare that to the 50-day (or less) averages we saw previously. If you see a home sitting for two months, it doesn’t necessarily mean something is wrong with it; it just means the market has normalized.
Sellers are starting to get the memo. We are seeing the sale-to-list ratio hover around 94% to 95%. In plain English, that means sellers are accepting offers roughly 5% below their asking price on average. Price cuts are becoming a regular notification in the MLS, signaling that the initial "aspirational" pricing is being corrected by the market.
One of the most important nuances in the Estero market right now is the split between single-family homes and condos. They are behaving like two completely different markets.
Single-family homes are showing impressive resilience. Demand remains steady for properties that offer your own plot of land, private yards, and no shared walls. While prices have softened slightly from their peaks, they are generally holding value because the desire for privacy and space hasn't gone away.
The condo market, however, is facing some headwinds. We are seeing steeper price corrections here, with some sectors showing noticeable year-over-year declines. It’s not just a lack of demand; it’s a cost issue. Between rising HOA fees to cover reserves and skyrocketing master insurance policies, the monthly carrying costs for condos have jumped. This has pushed some buyers to rethink their purchase, causing condo inventory to pile up and days on market to exceed 100 days in some complexes.
If you drive east down Corkscrew Road, you will see exactly where a large chunk of the buyers are going. There is a massive shift toward Estero new construction homes, and it is not just because people like shiny new countertops.
The driving force here is insurance. In Florida’s current climate, insuring an older home with an original roof can be a financial headache. New construction homes are built to the latest, strictest hurricane codes and come with brand-new roofs. This translates to significantly lower insurance premiums, sometimes saving homeowners thousands of dollars a year compared to resale properties.
Builders are also aggressive right now. They know they are competing with resale listings, so many are offering rate buy-downs and closing cost incentives that individual sellers just can’t match. For many buyers, the math just works better on a new build, even if the purchase price is slightly higher.
When you look at Southwest Florida as a whole, Estero continues to occupy a very specific "sweet spot." It’s often about finding the balance between lifestyle and budget.
Compared to our neighbors to the south in Naples and Bonita Springs, Estero offers a much more approachable entry point. You get access to the same beautiful beaches, the same golf lifestyle, and high-end shopping at Coconut Point, but you aren't paying the skyrocketing Naples premiums.
On the flip side, Estero generally commands a higher price tag than Fort Myers or Cape Coral. You are paying a premium here, but you are paying for the master-planned aesthetic. Estero has stricter zoning and architectural standards, which protects property values and keeps the area feeling manicured and less congested than the sprawling areas to the north.
So, what should you do with this information? Here is how to navigate the waters depending on which side of the table you are on.
For Buyers: Take a deep breath. You have time. The days of waiving inspections and offering $50,000 over asking are over. Look for listings that have been sitting for 90+ days—those sellers are likely motivated and tired of waiting. Don't be afraid to ask for concessions, whether that’s help with closing costs or a rate buydown.
For Sellers: Pricing is absolutely everything. If you price your home based on what your neighbor sold for in 2024, you will likely sit on the market for months. You need to price for today's buyers. Also, curb appeal matters more than ever. Since buyers have more choices, they will skip over homes that look tired or cluttered.
For Investors: Be cautious with your calculations. Rental rates have dipped slightly as more inventory has hit the market. Focus on cash flow in high-demand communities with amenities that attract seasonal renters, and keep a very close eye on HOA fee trends if you are looking at condos.
Looking ahead at the remainder of the year, we don't expect a crash, but rather a continued stabilization. The market is finding its footing. We likely won't see home values shoot up this year, but the floor seems solid due to the continued desirability of the Florida lifestyle.
Insurance rates will continue to drive decision-making, likely pushing more people toward newer homes or properties with verified updates. Inventory will likely peak late in the spring before the snowbirds head back north, at which point things will settle into the slower summer rhythm. Ultimately, Estero remains a prime destination, and for those playing the long game, the outlook remains positive.
As of early 2026, Estero has shifted into a balanced market that leans toward buyers. With inventory hovering around 6 months of supply, buyers have more leverage to negotiate prices and repairs than they have had in years.
Sold prices have softened, currently sitting in the $470,000 to $485,000 range, which is down roughly 8-12% from previous peaks depending on the neighborhood. While list prices remain high, sellers are frequently having to lower their expectations to get deals across the finish line.
Insurance is a major driver right now, causing a divergence between new and old homes. Buyers are flocking to new construction built to recent hurricane codes to secure lower premiums, while older condos and homes with older roofs are seeing softer demand due to higher carrying costs.
Homes are currently taking longer to sell, with the average days on market (DOM) stretching to roughly 70 days. This is a significant increase from the fast-paced market of previous years, indicating a return to a more normal pace of business.
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